The arrest of Ratko Mladic, Europe's most wanted war crimes suspect, is a potentially transformational step by President Boris Tadic for Serbia's international prospects.
It means Serbia has put its lingering status as an international pariah behind it and opened the path to a future of integration in the community of European democracies.
"A very courageous decision by the Serbian president," said the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy. "It's one more step towards Serbia's integration one day into the European Union."
Tadic has dispersed a cloud over Belgrade. There had been longstanding doubts that the Serbian government would track down the genocide suspect, regarded as a hero by many in Serbia and supported by influential networks in the security apparatus.
The west has pinned its hopes on Tadic, who has been facing unrest on the streets of Belgrade and the threat of being unseated by a strengthening nationalist opposition. He will be looking for a payoff in the form of a prompt advance on the road to EU membership.
"This opens a new chapter in relations between Serbia and Europe," said Hannes Swoboda, an Austrian MEP who specialises in the Balkans. "The EU must now react in a positive way. As soon as possible the EU should give Serbia the status of EU membership candidate."
By coincidence, as the arrest was being announced the EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, was in Belgrade pressing Tadic to be more conciliatory in talks with the leadership of Kosovo, whose independence Tadic will not recognise.
The EU will be under strong pressure to reward Belgrade and agree to open negotiations this year on membership. With Mladic still at large it would have been vetoed by the Netherlands and others.
"People will be thinking about Serbia and its future in the European Union," Ashton said. "We will approach that with renewed energy because of today. I look at the messages coming out of Brussels and European capitals to Serbia and hope that we will be able to move forward swiftly."
The Dutch have tied their endorsement of negotiations on Serbia to the assessment of Serge Brammertz, chief prosecutor at the Yugoslav war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Ironically, just as Serbian special forces were raiding the cottage where Mladic was sleeping, Brammertz's report to the UN was leaked. It damned Belgrade for ignoring tribunal requests and accused it of not being serious in pursuing Mladic: "To date Serbia's efforts to apprehend [Mladic] have not been sufficient. Serbia's failure undermines its credibility and the strength of its stated commitment to fully co-operate with the tribunal."
That assessment will need to be quickly rewritten before being presented in New York in early June.
There remains one suspect at large wanted by The Hague: Goran Hadzic, a leader of the Croatian Serbs in the early 1990s. But in arresting the big three – Slobodan Milosevic, the late Serbian president; Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb wartime political leader currently on trial; and now Mladic – – Belgrade has puts itself beyond reproach on the war crimes issue.
"The fact that Mladic and Karadzic are now in custody shows what principled EU engagement can deliver," Human Rights Watch said.
But the dividend could quickly be lost if Brussels fails to deliver on its side of the bargain. Neighbouring Croatia is in the closing stages of its six-year negotiation to join the EU. Just as it reaches closure the goalposts are being moved by EU governments and new conditions are being introduced. France, Germany, the Netherlands and several others are suffering from a chronic case of "enlargement fatigue" – fed up with an ever-growing EU.
If Europe does not deliver on its promises the result in the Balkans will be bitterness, setbacks for democrats who offered their publics "Europe" only to be shunned, and a boost for nationalists and populists.
And Tadic has other problems as well. The majority Albanians of Kosovo seceded from Serbia and declared independence three years ago, but Serbia does not recognise this.
Belgrade may be allowed to start EU negotiations this year, 20 years after unleashing a cyclone of violence in former Yugoslavia. The talks will be a long haul. And Serbia will not be able to complete them and join the EU while still claiming Kosovo as its own.
It means Serbia has put its lingering status as an international pariah behind it and opened the path to a future of integration in the community of European democracies.
"A very courageous decision by the Serbian president," said the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy. "It's one more step towards Serbia's integration one day into the European Union."
Tadic has dispersed a cloud over Belgrade. There had been longstanding doubts that the Serbian government would track down the genocide suspect, regarded as a hero by many in Serbia and supported by influential networks in the security apparatus.
The west has pinned its hopes on Tadic, who has been facing unrest on the streets of Belgrade and the threat of being unseated by a strengthening nationalist opposition. He will be looking for a payoff in the form of a prompt advance on the road to EU membership.
"This opens a new chapter in relations between Serbia and Europe," said Hannes Swoboda, an Austrian MEP who specialises in the Balkans. "The EU must now react in a positive way. As soon as possible the EU should give Serbia the status of EU membership candidate."
By coincidence, as the arrest was being announced the EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, was in Belgrade pressing Tadic to be more conciliatory in talks with the leadership of Kosovo, whose independence Tadic will not recognise.
The EU will be under strong pressure to reward Belgrade and agree to open negotiations this year on membership. With Mladic still at large it would have been vetoed by the Netherlands and others.
"People will be thinking about Serbia and its future in the European Union," Ashton said. "We will approach that with renewed energy because of today. I look at the messages coming out of Brussels and European capitals to Serbia and hope that we will be able to move forward swiftly."
The Dutch have tied their endorsement of negotiations on Serbia to the assessment of Serge Brammertz, chief prosecutor at the Yugoslav war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Ironically, just as Serbian special forces were raiding the cottage where Mladic was sleeping, Brammertz's report to the UN was leaked. It damned Belgrade for ignoring tribunal requests and accused it of not being serious in pursuing Mladic: "To date Serbia's efforts to apprehend [Mladic] have not been sufficient. Serbia's failure undermines its credibility and the strength of its stated commitment to fully co-operate with the tribunal."
That assessment will need to be quickly rewritten before being presented in New York in early June.
There remains one suspect at large wanted by The Hague: Goran Hadzic, a leader of the Croatian Serbs in the early 1990s. But in arresting the big three – Slobodan Milosevic, the late Serbian president; Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb wartime political leader currently on trial; and now Mladic – – Belgrade has puts itself beyond reproach on the war crimes issue.
"The fact that Mladic and Karadzic are now in custody shows what principled EU engagement can deliver," Human Rights Watch said.
If Europe does not deliver on its promises the result in the Balkans will be bitterness, setbacks for democrats who offered their publics "Europe" only to be shunned, and a boost for nationalists and populists.
And Tadic has other problems as well. The majority Albanians of Kosovo seceded from Serbia and declared independence three years ago, but Serbia does not recognise this.
Belgrade may be allowed to start EU negotiations this year, 20 years after unleashing a cyclone of violence in former Yugoslavia. The talks will be a long haul. And Serbia will not be able to complete them and join the EU while still claiming Kosovo as its own.